Toledo -7 2.2% play
The first meeting was a home game for Miami Ohio, and they trailed 21-3 at the half, ultimately losing 21-17, but they were on the road and Miami Ohio had their QB in that game. Gabbert lost of the season 4 games ago, and his replacement Aveon Smith has not looked good and has progressively gotten worse over his 4 games as more and more tape is available. Smith goes up against his toughest challenge so far facing Toledo who has a top 20 pass defense, top 25 run defense, and top 30 sack rate, while Miami Ohio ranks 101st in ypc, 111th in success rate, and 101st in protecting the QB. Smith threw 2 INT in his last game. Toledo went 3-1 against top defenses this year, and amazingly all 4 games were on the road while their lone loss was by 2 points to Power 5 opponent to open the year, which was their only loss.
Miami Ohio’s defense is what should keep them in this game, but overall they haven’t faced many top offenses. Toledo ranks 15th in yards per play, and has been balanced offensively ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 26th in passing success rate. They are also 14th in protecting the QB. Toledo in their lone two games vs. top offenses went 0-2. Both teams played similar schedules of opponents, but Toledo +1.6 yards per play differential compared to MIami Ohio at +0.6 yards per play. Toledo will have the incentive to put points and not take foot off if they get out to an early lead like the last time these two met.
